Risk assessment of biological invasion by Toona ciliata via ecological niche modeling

Abstract

The Toona ciliata species M. Roem. It was introduced in Brazil as an alternative for the production of plywood in the 1940s Native to Australia, India, Myanmar, Malaysia and Indonesia, found in Brazil favorable conditions for its development. There were no previous studies assessing the risk of invasion by alien species, thus justifying the present work. The occurrence of records of the species in places of origin, were obtained in the GBIF databa-se and ecological niche modeling analysis was used Bioclim algorithm. In northern South, south of Minas Gerais and Goiás, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo and part of Mato Grosso do Sul, and in the center of Rio Grande do Sul, the species showed high to extremely high susceptibility to invasion. These regions are the areas of the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado biome considered Hotspots, ie priority areas for biodiversity conservation. Based on the results of the analyzes, it was observed that planting species should be avoided in areas referred to above, and by proper management, it can be grown in the North and Northeast, where the risk of invasion by the species was less important (low susceptibility).